Research

2024 – Nordic Cooperation

For the Nordic Council of Ministers we have examined the Nordic Cooperation in the transport sector and presented the following report (in Swedish). Our main conclusion is; it already exists a lot of Nordic cooperation especially between Administrations and we believe that the most fruitful and efficient way foreword is to strengthen this already existing cooperation. If the Nordic Council is not able to support this kind of efficient cooperation it maybe a case for a Nordic Council of Transportministers as a fallback option.

2023 – Costs overrun – recommendation for Sweden

Based on our study of cost control in different countries (below) we were commissioned by Trafikanalys to exam possible measures in the Swedish planning. The work resulted in the report “Inside and outside view in Swedish infrastructure planning “(in Swedish). Our analysis shows that the increase between projects that were included in both the National Plan 2018 and 2022, with a Decision to start, have increased with 43%, those that can be Prepared for construction have increased by 34% and those in the Early Stages by 62%. The Government has stressed that it is of great importance that the cost estimates are realistic and that there is budgetary discipline and that the focus should be on projects in the early stages. The problem is not specifically Swedish and exists in most countries globally and has occurred for a long time.

In Swedish planning, the concept of optimism bias (zero hits in the bill) was not used in the design of the new planning system in 2012. Planning today is based on a strong inside perspective. We discuss four possibilities to get more help from an outside perspective in the Swedish National Plan. First, to introduce a gate/gateway in the Early Planning Stages when the projects are to be included in the National Plan. Then strengthen  the external review for the major projects, perhaps over SEK 1 billion, which would have given 29 projects to review (and thus improve) in the current National Plan. Strengthen the project log so that you can identify scope creep across the planning stages. Correct for residual optimism bias at  the aggregate level and at the project level internally in the Swedish Transport Administration. If we had made an aggregate correction in the National Plan 2022, we would have noted that the Government made a decision regarding large projects that will most likely be SEK 700,000 million instead of SEK 600,000 million, which is the total project cost in the National Plan. By ignoring historical information on skewed distribution, the fact that the cost is likely to be SEK 100,000 million higher has been overlooked. 

2023 – Nordic strategies to reduce cost overruns

Cost overrun in infrastructure provision is more a rule than an accident. Infrastructure managers all over the world try different strategies to create a better control on budget and costs. In a work commissioned by Trafikanalys have we in detail studied strategies in a number of countries with a Nordic focus. The report written in Swedish can be found here https://nordicmobility.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/en-nordisk-palett-av-strategier-och-losningar-for-battre-kostnadskontroll-i-infrastrukturprojekt.pdf. The report covers Norway, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, UK and Origon.

We find quite a big difference in the philosophy of cost control between the Nordic countries; Norway has a detailed probability-based process with external cost control to keep an eye on optimism bias, but it requires a lot of expertise and work; Denmark has a simpler model and adds fixed mark-ups for optimism bias, has RCF and a simpler form of external quality assurance and makes the estimates “in-house”; Finland does not have external quality assurance on the grounds that it instead has an innovation procurement process (the alliance model) that through cooperation will reduce the risks of overestimation. They invest heavily in the cost estimation model. In Norway, the Ministry of Finance has a significant role, while the Ministry of Transport is the central actor in the other two countries. For Norway and Denmark, we have detailed data and the outcome of the proportion of overestimates (of the last estimate) is largely identical and low. In recent studies, Finland also seems to be doing well.
The UK excels in gateways and control mechanisms with a strong involvement of the Treasury and the Cabinet Office. Despite this, studies suggest relatively large overruns in the UK. The Netherlands has an interesting planning model based on cooperation and dialogue, they have introduced gateways and independent controls and seem to be doing well. We have only studied Oregon briefly; they have separate project control offices and use US common estimation programs (i.e., they do not require an Orgeon custom estimation program). Oregon also looks set to do well from the last estimates to outcomes.
There are horror examples of overruns from all countries, and these are usually deviations from early estimates. We also note that the three Nordic countries do not have any clear requirements for quality assurance of projects and estimates included in the National Plan (NTP). No one has a working process for later stopping projects in the plan. We also see that a process that leads to perfect estimates of the final costs does not in any way lead to the implementation of socio-economically profitable projects.

2022 – Evidence based development of (transport) infrastructure

We have finalized a study of possible development paths for the planning process including demand management (ÅVS) and present several proposals for further research and development to the Swedish Transport Administration. Our starting point is that the development must be evidence-based.

We note that for demand-management measures there are no good descriptions of measures and effects. We propose that the Swedish Transport Administration use more systematic review and meta-analyses according to accepted scientific methods. In order to create a “Catalogue of measures”, we propose a collaboration with Norway on the development of the “Tiltakskatalogen for Transport and Environment”, that catalogue is more up-to-date than the corresponding information at the Swedish Transport Administration and would, through cooperation, streamline the development process. Furthermore, several smaller general socio-economic analyses should be developed that can be used to assess in which circumstances various smaller measures contribute to a better economy. The accessibility analysis must be given a greater space in the planning: it is independent of the modes of transport and is well suited for a broader planning paradigm where more measures are included, as for example IT or building development. The analysis must be designed so it can generate information for a socio-economic analysis (logsum) which will streamline the planning process. But independently of this, classic Effect-modules must be developed that describe the relationships between a measure and the effects in modules, for example, for cycling. The Swedish Transport Administration conducts advanced demand analyses. But smaller measures require simpler models that can estimate demand effects. A combination of information about mobility via new data sources, such as different forms of mobile data, and developed elasticities will be able to provide meaningful support for assessments of different options but will never be the substitute for the bigger models. To develop the socio-economic analysis (CBA), we propose increased Nordic cooperation in a number of prioritized areas.

2021 – Trafikverkets modeller, dokumentation och effektsamband för analyser av steg 1- och steg 2-åtgärder.

A report on “the Swedish Transport Administration’s models, documentation and impact estimates used for analysis of step 1- and step 2-measures” (in Swedish) commissioned by Transport Analysis (a Swedish government agency for transport policy studies). In this Swedish context “step 1-measures” relates to demand management while “step 2-measures” are lighter supply management measures.

2021 – Automobile taxation and CO2 mitigation

Scientific Publication – Comparing the Scandinavian automobile taxation systems and their CO2 mitigation effects. An interesting paper on the effect of taxation on the introduction of electric vehicles in Norway, Sweden and Denmark written basically by Vegard Östli and Lasse Fridström with Niels Buus Kristensen from Denmark and Gunnar Lindberg as co-author.

2021 – ITF Round Table on Regional policy – How to ensure adequate transport links for sparsely populated regions.

This Roundtable explores policies to ensure adequate access to indispensable services for residents in sparsely populated regions. It aims to provide insights into how different countries address the connectivity challenge for remote and rural communities. It outlines methods to assess the level of connectivity across transport modes and also through other means, such as internet-based services. Finally, approaches to measuring the value for money of different policy options are considered. Find the report and videos here https://www.itf-oecd.org/connecting-remote-communities-roundtable. Chair: Gunnar Lindberg

Economics and Benefit Cost Analysis BCA/CBA

2021 – Member of the Scientific Committee of ASEK – developing the Swedish CBA for the Transport sector.

Review of Transport Research and Innovation

2021 – Expert in the evaluation by Faugert & Co of the Strategic Innovation Platform (SIP) Drive Sweden commissioned by VINNOVA.

2021 – Expert in the evaluation by Faugert & Co of the Strategic Innovation Platform (SIP) InfraSweden commissioned by VINNOVA.